Race Reaction's 2025 F1 Predictions
Image: Scuderia Ferrari HP
There are just five weeks until lights out in Melbourne and we can’t wait to see the 2025 Formula One grid go wheel-to-wheel again! Last season was arguably the most varied and exciting we’ve had since 2021, with seven different drivers winning at least one race - we haven’t seen this much competition since 2012, the last time we had seven or more drivers win a race.
The new season also promises to build on the excitement of the countless driver transfers, most notably Lewis Hamilton’s historical switch over from Mercedes to Ferrari.
There will also be the most rookies on the grid since 2013. We’ve written a concise introduction to each of the rookies here, so make sure to go and give it a read to catch up in case you missed it! From Verstappen vying for his fifth consecutive title to Kimi Antonelli hoping to impress on his debut, there’s a lot to look forward to over the next ten months.
In this article, we’ll be giving our best (and sometimes educated) predictions on how we think the 2025 Formula One season will play out - let’s get into it shall we?
Drivers’ Championship Standings
Image: Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool
Manav
Champion - Max Verstappen
Last season was pretty tough if you were a lifelong Red Bull fan like myself. It’s never easy to see your team decline to the point where a podium is treated like a victory, I guess that’s what Hamilton and Alonso fans have felt in recent years. The second half of the season was subpar from 2023’s perspective, where Red Bull took victory at all but one race, making the RB20 the most dominant Formula One car in history. Going from that level of success to claiming just five podiums in the second half of the season is a kick in the teeth.
I think Verstappen will bounce back from the disappointing form Red Bull has shown. Partnering up with Liam Lawson, Verstappen will, for the first time, race alongside a younger driver. The new competition from a speedy Liam Lawson will no doubt give Verstappen and Red Bull a much-needed boost. Whether teams including Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes will pose a formidable challenge will depend on how well the teams have developed their 2025 challengers over the winter break.
P2 - Charles Leclerc
Image: Scuderia Ferrari HP
I’m not hopping on the Ferrari hypetrain just yet but I would argue that Charles Leclerc has what it takes to race at the level only seen from drivers such as Verstappen or Hamilton. Although he lost the 2022 title fight, Leclerc is one of the few drivers that have successfully challenged the well-oiled Verstappen/Red Bull machine.
Leclerc’s one-lap qualifying pace is sensational and has been referred to as one of the best qualifiers in the modern era of the sport. Jock Clear, a legendary figure in the paddock and Leclerc’s performance engineer, has hailed the 27-year-old as a barnstorming talent.
Jock Clear on Leclerc’s qualifying performance:
“He’s got what it takes to be a world champion. He’s got the qualifying pace. I honestly think he’s the best qualifier we’ve seen.”
I think Leclerc will challenge Verstappen at a number of races but will, unfortunately, fall victim to Ferrari’s usual end-of-season development slump. I’m sure that the Monegasque’s six seasons at the Scuderia will come in handy when battling seven-time world-champion Lewis Hamilton.
P3 - Lando Norris
I’m speaking from experience when I say I can sympathise with Norris’ fanbase. Seeing your driver challenge an accomplished champion for a title only to lose through bad luck and poor performance — I feel your pain Lando fans.
The young Brit will be hoping to rectify the mistakes of his 2024 campaign with renewed competition from Ferrari and Mercedes. I believe Norris will take the fight to Verstappen but will be blindsided by the extremely competitive grid. I hope Lando does well this season, as I felt his confidence took a blow after losing to Verstappen last season, and hopefully, we can see Lando’s pace and racecraft develop in 2025.
Last year, the McLaren driver signed a “multi-year” contract extension beyond his current one, which was set to expire in 2025. This means Norris is locked in with the team from Woking until 2027 at the very least, so this season will be crucial to the development of the new car from 2026 and beyond. I’m sure Andrea Stella is rubbing his hands seeing all the talent at his disposal.
P4 - Liam Lawson
Image: Ken Leanfore / Red Bull Content Pool
I’m pretty optimistic about Liam Lawson’s prospects at Red Bull. Graduating from the sister team very quickly surely tells you that Helmut Marko and Christian Horner believe in his potential and see him as an equal to Verstappen, who is one of the most accomplished drivers in Formula One history.
Many Red Bull hopefuls have come and gone. Daniil Kvyat, Alex Albon, and Pierre Gasly are just a few drivers who’ve left the team, failing to emulate the success of Sebastian Vettel. Verstappen has not only surpassed Vettel’s records, he’s absolutely shattered them. Lawson, in my opinion, has what it takes to have a promising career at the Milton Keynes outfit.
With growing concerns that Verstappen may switch teams or quit Formula One altogether, Red Bull need a reliable, proven talent who will eventually keep the momentum going even after Verstappen leaves.
I think Lawson will help Red Bull to win the World Constructors’ Championship via regular podiums and occasionally challenging for poles/fastest laps. I hope the young Aussie wins his first race as he’s shown so much potential in his handful of races for Alpha Tauri/VCARB.
P5 - Lewis Hamilton
Image: Scuderia Ferrari HP
This is it. This is Sir Lewis Hamilton’s swansong. It only took him 18 seasons but the 105-time race winner will race without Mercedes power for the first time in his Formula One career. He’ll race in scarlet red following twelve successful seasons with Mercedes, where he won six drivers’ titles and 84 victories.
Images of his first week at Ferrari caused frenzy on social media as Hamilton’s iconic fashion style took centre stage, donning a Sopranos-style jacket, and standing in front of a Ferrari F40.
I think 2025 will be kind to him and he’ll claim a win or two for Maranello. I do think he’ll take a while to get up to speed with everything at the factory from the engineers’ names to the uniqueness of the Ferrari power unit. I feel this season will be a learning curve for him as he grapples with yet another talented teammate in the form of Charles Leclerc.
As this contract seems to be the last Hamilton will sign in his historic career, I’m sure this partnership will be one for the history books.
Miles
Champion - Max Verstappen
Image: Red Bull Content Pool
Forgive me for the lack of variety in predictions between Manav and myself here, but I’m largely of the same opinion on who will take driver’s championship victory in 2025 - for me it has to be Max. We have seen the now quadruple world champ do amazing things in less than competitive machinery for years, all the way up to that spectacle of a season in 2021. Since then, you could argue that it’s been mostly plain-sailing for Max and that he’s not really faced that kind of championship competition since, and I’d be more than inclined to agree.
Even considering the stunning performances we’ve seen Max put on over the last five years or so, I believe 2025 might still be a tough year for Red Bull, given the rate of improvement R&D-wise from other teams such as McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes, who each achieved multiple wins last year. With the addition of new teammate Liam Lawson, this will be the first time Max is directly put up against a younger, less experienced driver, and I could potentially see a few on-track squabbles as the two get used to that relationship.
What will really be the deciding factor in whether Max will be able to complete a five-peat this year is if Red Bull are able to again give him the car to be able to get the job done, but my faith in the Dutchman’s ability to win another title remains unshaken. Despite some major competition from the likes of a revitalised Lewis Hamilton, a vengeful Lando Norris or a fresh-faced hot shot Kimi Antonelli, I predict that we’ll still be hearing the Dutch national anthem on quite a few occasions this season.
P2 - Charles Leclerc
Image: @ScuderiaFerrari on Twitter/X
Ferrari’s ‘Il Predestinato’ Charles Leclerc has so far been on fantastic form in this current set of regulations, consistently beating out his teammate and vying for race wins more often than not. Pairing with the legendary Lewis Hamilton this year, he’ll have to up his game even furter to show his adoring fans, and his team no less, that he’s still got what it takes to be a serious championship contender.
We saw a glimpse of this for the first time at the start of the 2022 season in Bahrain, where we saw defending champion Verstappen fall at the first hurdle, convincing me that the Maranello team would be winning the title with Charles at the helm. I went out and immediately bought a Ferrari team jersey which, in retrospect, was quite the premature reaction given how the rest of that season eventually unfolded!
Nonetheless, I foresee a reborn Ferrari team this year and, as the more ingrained driver within the team, Charles will be the points breadwinner, for at least the majority of the season. He will come up against adversity and, without doubt, some questionable strategy calls from his pitwall but ultimately I think we’ll be sat here in 365 days’ time reflecting on how the man from Monaco closed out the season not very far off the eventual champion of Max Verstappen.
P3 - Lewis Hamilton
Image: @ScuderiaFerrari on Twitter/X
I’ve never been the biggest Hamilton fan but I must admit, the way Ferrari built up to Lewis’ first day as one of their drivers couldn’t have been any better - I mean just look at that photo! It’s definitely got me quite excited to see how the most successful driver in the sport’s history will fare at a team with such rich heritage and success of their own. There’s certainly no doubting that this is a historical moment in our sport that we’ll still be talking about for many many years. It’s now been over a year since the seismic announcement of Lewis joining the team (which has absolutely flown by!) and I can’t say that I’m used to seeing him in red just yet, but the man from Stevenage seems very much at home and happier than ever to be racing with non-Mercedes power for the first time in his long and fruitful career - he’s even been learning Italian, which says more about the prestige of the team than Lewis himself.
I believe we may see the first half of the season act as a sort of teething period for the Brit as he acclimatises to a whole new set of personnel, strategic philosophy, teammate and even the buttons on the steering wheel, but once he’s properly comfortable I think we’ll see that Hamilton flame rekindled. Not at all to say that he’s not still got it in him, but I don’t see Lewis being right up there to fight for an eighth driver’s title just yet, despite the fact that he’s most certainly seeking retribution for the result of the 2021 season.
2025 will be a year of preparation for the seven-time champion, as we look ahead to a completely overhauled set of regulations in 2026, where we could see the natural order of the grid turned on its head and, in doing so, Lewis will bring home enough points to secure third in the standings.
P4 - Lando Norris
Image: @McLarenF1 on Twitter/X
Having put up a decent fight at the business end of the 2024 season, Lando Norris has claimed that he’ll be aiming for the title this year, which is great to hear from a young and hungry driver and that passion is the lifeblood of Formula One. A few too many mistakes under pressure (and a smattering of misfortune too) saw Lando miss out on claiming the driver’s championship last year, but he was vital in securing McLaren’s first constructor’s championship victory since the Häkkinen-Coulthard days in 1998.
The papaya team took the championship lead from Red Bull at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, which they would not relinquish, however the thrilling Brazilian Grand Prix saw Verstappen put to bed any doubts of not winning his fourth title, and subsequently meant that Norris could mathematically no longer win the championship. Norris had a fair few comments to make about his good friend and rival Verstappen throughout the season, but there were no real hard feelings between the two.
2025 could see McLaren continue on strong form and, if so, posterboy Norris could be up there again contending for podiums and wins on a regular basis - he will again outperform his teammate Piastri, but the Aussie won’t be far behind. A strong team effort will put both McLaren drivers in the standings’ top five come the end of this season.
P5 - Oscar Piastri
Image: @McLarenF1 on Twitter/X
Oscar Piastri had an impressive 2024 season, scoring points in every race (with the exception of the Miami Grand Prix), claiming his first win in just his second year at the Hungaroring, and was the only driver on the grid to complete 100% of the possible race laps for the year, making him only the fourth driver to ever do so, alongside huge names such as Lewis Hamilton, Michael Schumacher and Max Verstappen. That’s no small feat! This young star has a long and bright F1 future ahead of him, no doubt.
Again, alongside teammate Lando Norris, Piastri helped to thrust the McLaren team to the top of the constructors’ table for the first time since before he was even born (!) and has more than made a name for himself as a driver that belongs in a Formula One car, in a top team no less. He’s gained the endearing nickname of ‘The Iceman 2.0’ for his no-nonsense attitude and sheer consistency, seemingly not being affected by adverse weather conditions, less than ideal pace from his car and so on.
Oscar will remain a rock-steady and reliable points scorer for McLaren and that consistency will grant him a place in the top 5 on the driver’s ladder.
Constructors’ Championship Standings
Image: Haas F1 Team
Manav
Champions - Red Bull
Now, both Miles and I made this prediction last year too and it didn’t work out. Following a disastrous campaign mainly due to a lack of pace and a string of poor performances from Sergio Perez, the team failed to claim the constructors’ title for the third consecutive year.
I think they’ll bounce back and have even more motivation to show the sport how great the team at Milton Keynes is. However, the only concern I have is that the team is now void of one of its most valuable assets, Adrian Newey.
With the 66-year-old joining Aston Martin from the start of the 2025 season, the design guru will now impart his invaluable knowledge to the Silverstone team, having been at Red Bull for nearly two decades.
The loss of Adrian Newey will no doubt be felt but it’ll be interesting to see if Red Bull’s aerodynamics, which have been its strong suit, will stay good or slowly get worse as the seasons roll on.
I think Red Bull has a strong and talented driver lineup who’ll bring the results in and will dominate the competition.
P2 - Ferrari
Image: Scuderia Ferrari HP
Do I believe that Ferrari will win a title in my lifetime? Yes. Do I think it’ll happen this year? Definitely not. 2026 looks like the Scuderia’s best shot at reviving the once-great team and destroying the competition with a killer lineup.
I just don’t see Ferrari challenging Red Bull that much for a title fight. I do, however, expect the pairing of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton to cause some issues for Ferrari’s higher-ups.
Do you give the drivers a level advantage and see who comes out on top and risk clashes on track? Will team orders come into play this season? Will Hamilton even be quick enough to match Leclerc’s pace? These are questions that only Ferrari will know.
One thing is for sure, the prancing horse will be bringing the heat for 2025.
P3 - McLaren
Image: McLaren F1
Winning their first constructors’ championship since 1998 must’ve been such a brilliant feeling for the team from Woking. The McLaren project has been fine-tuned and spearheaded by Andrea Stella, who is ambitious to keep his papaya cars at the sharp end of a grid.
Andrea Stella on McLaren’s 2024 season
“When you are solid from a management point of view, you are trusted. When you start to deliver on the investment, then you can compete at the top.”
I predict that McLaren will have a successful year with a few wins here and there but ultimately lose out on the development race. For 2025, the team will be taking a “completely different” approach, in the style of what Ferrari claimed last season.
The combination of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri is exciting as it promises consistency and good results. I just feel that Piastri needs to unlock a bit more to get on Norris’ level, which he could most certainly achieve this year.
I’m sure McLaren will have yet another great year after many years of dismal performances.
P4 - Mercedes
It’s a new era for Mercedes. The team from Brackley will have George Russell as its clear number-one driver, with rookie Kimi Antonelli as a keen second driver.
Whilst the lineup may be an interesting one, I feel that Mercedes will need to adapt to Antonelli’s presence in the team, following many years of Hamilton’s great development feedback.
Building a car that suits a new, inexperienced driver and a relatively successful racewinner will be tricky.
I also predict there’ll be fireworks between the pair and that Toto Wolff will have to intervene via the team radio. I hope this doesn’t happen but with Russell’s recent clashes with Verstappen, his on-track demeanour has been getting increasingly aggressive.
It’ll be interesting to see how the ‘Verstappen 2.0’ project works out with Antonelli and Mercedes but only time will tell if he’ll be just as successful.
P5 - Aston Martin
Image: Aston Martin F1
Lawrence Stroll, who could easily be mistaken for a Bond villain, will no doubt be expecting a better season than last year.
With Fernando Alonso signing a contract extension that’ll expire at the end of 2026, there’s still hope that the 43-year-old will deliver the team its first victory.
Aston Martin has also procured numerous talents from up and down the paddock. Just a few names include ex-Ferrari aero boss Enrico Cardile, former head of powertrains at Mercedes Andy Cowell, and of course, design legend Adrian Newey.
With a talent lineup like this, I’m sure Aston Martin will be extremely successful in the next few seasons. Just look at Adrian Newey. Joining in 2006, he transformed that team to a championship contender in just three seasons, when Sebastian Vettel challenged Jenson Button for the drivers’ title in 2009.
I predict that Aston Martin will gladly welcome whatever feedback Newey has and will develop a serious challenger.
In my opinion Lance Stroll will improve much but will be scoring points much more regularly than last season. I speak for us all when I say that we want to see that iconic British Racing Green at the top of the podium sometime soon.
Miles
Champions - Ferrari
Image: @ScuderiaFerrari on Twitter/X
Even though I’m not predicting a Ferrari driver’s champion, I think the arrival of a driver of Lewis Hamilton’s calibre and reputation will make Ferrari pull their socks up and seriously rethink their strategic calls through which we’ve seen race wins thrown away and misery and confusion arise from its drivers.
With their heads screwed on and the right amount of fortune, I believe Ferrari can finally do just enough for a constructors’ title charge - we saw them leapfrog Red Bull last year alongside McLaren, with the Milton Keynes team failing to hold its position at the top, so who’s to say the team battle won’t be between these three again?
And again, with Lewis Hamilton behind the wheel, they’ll not want to get in his way or make questionable decisions, they’re paying him enough! I’m saying they could maybe, just maybe, pull it off this year, but I’ll be more than happy to chow down on my own words if it doesn’t pan out.
P2 - Red Bull
Image: Red Bull Content Pool
With a new lineup of Liam Lawson and Max Verstappen, 2025 will be a blank slate for the successful Red Bull team, but nonetheless a challenge to keep up that level of performance that we’ve seen from them for the past few years. Arguably having been held back by a combination of circumstances in 2024 (Perez’s inconsistency and rapid improvement in pace from other teams to name a few), the desire will be to get right back on top, and I’m confident that the Kiwi-Dutch pairing will be able to deliver that.
I do foresee, however, a few blunders from Lawson or perhaps some weekends throughout the season that he’d rather forget - not to slander the up and coming driver, but he’ll be going up against one of the most dominant drivers we’ve seen this decade so far, which will be no small task.
Red Bull will have another strong season but will ultimately fall just short of constructors’ victory for the second year running.
P3 - McLaren
Image: @McLarenF1 on Twitter/X
Hot off the heels of their first championship win in 26 years, McLaren will be aiming to emuate the season they had last year, despite ulitmately missing out on the WDC with Lando Norris. Of the 10 teams on the grid, I’d hazard a guess by saying that McLaren is the most teamwork-focused outfit, in that we consistently see its two drivers operate at a similar pace and team orders dictate that they help each other out with a dose of DRS or a wall of defense from another charging driver. Zak Brown has always sung the praises of the people around him and said that the WCC wouldn’t have been possible without them - makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside!"
I foresee a similar level of success, though with a reinvigorated Ferrari and a more determined Red Bull than ever, they may not come out quite on top in 2025. As McLaren’s third consecutive season with an unchanged driver lineup (which is a rare sight in F1 these days!), the determining factor in how they’ll stack up against the competition will be the competition itself, rather than the ability of Lando and Oscar to win, which I have no doubt remains just as strong.
P4 - Mercedes
Image: @MercedesAMGF1 on Twitter/X
It has to be said that replacing a driver with such a legacy and importance as Lewis Hamilton, with whom we’ve associated the German team since 2013, was going to be no simple task. In the end, and after much speculation, Team Principal Toto Wolff landed on the young prospect of Andrea Kimi Antonelli, fresh from a P6 finish for the Prema team in feeder series F2 (though he did withdraw from the final two rounds).
He, alongside the now more experienced team leader George Russell, will be fighting to bring Mercedes back to championship glory after a run of the last few years of falling short. They may again find themselves up against fierce competition from the rest of the ‘big four’ teams as they’ve not quite been able to crack the 2022-and-onwards regulations, though as we enter the final year of those regulations we would expect most (if not all) of the teams on the grid to have a pretty solid grasp of how to make a ground-effect era car go fast.
Even with the addition of fresh blood in Antonelli, I foresee another middling season for the German team, by their high standards. Young Kimi will make the necessary mistakes here and there as he becomes accustomed to being a Formula One driver and Russell will be consistently in the top 8 to bring home the regular points, but I’m not expecting a standout season from Mercedes.
P5 - Aston Martin
Image: @nonstopf1_ on Twitter/X
Despite having a more fruitful season in 2023 than in 2024, Aston Martin is still aiming for huge growth, and fast, to become a race-winning and championship contender team, evident in Lawrence Stroll’s signing of legendary car designer Adrian Newey and massive investment in the team’s Sliverstone base of operations, even constructing a miniature Silverstone track on the premises. In short, 2026 looks to be a pivotal season for Aston Martin.
Heading into their third consecutive year as teammates, double world champion Fernando Alonso and, well, not-world-champion Lance Stroll will more than likely be treating 2025 as somewhat of a filler season before the AMR26 hits the track for a big championship push. Whether or not either of them will have a seat at that point is another question entirely however!
Having achieved points at 18 of the 24 races we had last year, with Alonso scoring 74% of those, it’s looking like this season will be much of the same - Lance making stupid mistakes and Fernando either being screwed over by pit strategy or just completely invisible in the midfield. In spite of this, I don’t foresee any of the rest of the teams outside of the top 5 posing much of a threat to Aston Martin, especially if there will be Newey influence on the AMR25.
Biggest surprise of the season
Manav: Aston Martin win a race
Over the course of the 2024 season, Aston Martin picked up 94 points – a whopping 186 fewer than in 2023.
Of course, there are plenty of reasons why this has happened, predominantly a chain of unsuccessful upgrades. I’m sure the Silverstone team remains just as committed to fighting for podiums and wins just as it was in 2023, when Fernando Alonso picked up eight podiums, extending his career tally to an impressive 106.
If there’s chaos in one of the races and Verstappen retires with mechanical damage or from an engine blowout, Aston Martin may be able to capitalise on that.
If Fernando Alonso has the car to fight in the top ten regularly, it’s not a long shot to assume he can keep his AMR25 ahead of the quicker competition. Plus, it’s Fernando Alonso, one of the most naturally gifted drivers in the sport, in my opinion.
I hope we can see a win from the Silverstone outfit soon, delivering on Lawrence Stroll’s promise to make Aston Martin a championship contender by 2026.
Miles: Things turn sour at Haas
With a brand-spanking new lineup of former F2 Prema driver (and F1 points-scorer already!) Ollie Bearman and the ex-Alpine race winner Esteban Ocon, as well as the solid footing that Team Principal Ayao Komatsu now has, it’s looking like 2025 is set to be a pretty decent season for America’s Formula One team. The two drivers seem to be pretty pally so far too:
The thing is though, I reckon with the young Brit Bearman wanting to fully prove himself as a competent driver and not just that kid that claimed a P7 finish in his debut race, standing in for Carlos ‘Appendix’ Sainz, and the experience and, sometimes, aggressive nature of Esteban Ocon’s driving, we may see a bust up at some point during the season.
Though Esteban isn’t old, will age and experience trump youthful exuberance on track? And if so, might there be a few exchanged words between the two if the team can’t keep them under control? Perhaps.
I know we don’t really see this sort of thing in the sport anymore, but it would be entertaining nonetheless, right?
Closing out…
So, those are our predictions for the 2025 Formula One season! We both pretty much went 0 for 3 in at least our ‘biggest surprise’ forecasts for 2024, so here’s to hoping these ones are more accurate - it’s always a good laugh to read back through these in retrospect and laugh at how wrong we were, so bring on the season and let’s see how we did this time next year!
In the meantime, we’ll be bringing you all the very best of what 2025 has to offer, with race reports, thought pieces, podcasts and more, so stay tuned to Race Reaction.
